Over 7-8 December, much of Flightradar24’s most tracked flights list was occupied by flights to, from, or near Syria as rebels entered Damascus and news spread that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad had been deposed. With the Russian government announcing it had granted Assad and his family asylum and they were in Moscow, we began to ponder Assad’s possible paths to Russia.
The following options present to us the most likely scenarios, though there are certainly multiple variables that leave open the possibility of additional options.
Option A — IL-76 from Latakia
Just after 11:00 UTC (14:00 local time) on 8 December, a Russian government IL-76MD departed Latakia for Moscow. The flight reached the Moscow area around 15:30 UTC. Tracking of this 34 year old IL-76 is consistently poor, due in part to the aircraft’s older transponder and in part to the areas of GPS interference through which it regularly flies.
On 10 December, Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told NBC News it had brought Assad to Russia “in the most secure way possible.” A government aircraft operating a non-stop flight from a major air base seems to fit that description.
Arrival at Latakia?
Early on the morning of 8 December, Flightradar24 tracked a Syrian Air IL-76 from an area near Damascus to an area near Homs. YK-ATA is a 44 year old IL-76T operated by Syrian Air and in recent months the aircraft has visited Benghazi, Libya on a regular basis.
The flight on 8 December garnered significant interest as the flight path appeared to show the aircraft’s flight terminating just west of Homs. The aircraft had been cruising around 23,000 feet when it appeared to descend with an irregular anti-clockwise path until the final data received showed the aircraft at 1,625 feet and 130 knots.
The area in which the aircraft was flying, especially the area of Syria between Homs and the coast, is regularly subject to GPS interference—including spoofing and jamming. With that in mind, analyzing the raw ADS-B data received from YK-ATA shows positional and speed data that strains credulity.
In the image below, the positions have been plotted individually, which demonstrates the effects of GPS interference. There are multiple movements (the ladder step changes southeast and northwest of Homs) and turns (top of the image) that would not be physically possible for an IL-76 to perform. Additionally, the received ground speed data during the period after 02:22 UTC is erratic and very likely erroneous.
In light of this and satellite imagery captured by Maxar and published by the New York Times, which appears to show a Syrian Air IL-76 sitting on the ramp of Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia, it is our belief now that the aircraft landed at Latakia after departing Damascus.
Option B — via Abu Dhabi
For much of 7 December, the most tracked aircraft on Flightradar24 was C5-SKY, a Embraer Legacy 600 that shuttled to Syria and back from Abu Dhabi’s Al Bateen Executive Airport. The aircraft landed in Abu Dhabi at 17:17.
The following afternoon, a Russian-registered Gulfstream G450 departed Abu Dhabi for Moscow. The aircraft arrived in the Moscow area at approximately 19:00 UTC.
Given the statements from the Russian government on 10 December, it would seem Option A is the most likely scenario for how Assad made it to Moscow.
